S&P 500

Key insight

The S&P 500 has broken below its 50-day MA (7,470) for the first time since May, putting bulls on the defensive; reclaiming that level is the critical test before next week's Fed decision.

The S&P 500 is attempting to stabilize near 7,433 — just below the reclaimed 50-day MA at 7,470 — after Thursday's -1.21% selloff driven by the Brent crude spike above $100 and AI capex concerns from Alphabet earnings.

Main risk

Middle East Escalation & Oil at $100+

Brent crude briefly topped $100 after attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea; a sustained hold above $100 would re-accelerate inflation expectations and pressure the Fed to hike, directly threatening the index's valuation multiple.