S&P 500

Key insight

Friday's price at 7,433 sits in a critical decision zone — 88% of reporting S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates by a median 7%, yet mega-cap AI earnings disappointments (Alphabet -7%, Tesla -14%) and elevated oil prices from a live US-Iran military conflict are capping upside and creating a tug-of-war between strong broad earnings and deteriorating large-cap sentiment.

The S&P 500 has recovered from Thursday's 1.21% earnings-driven sell-off back above the 7,430 zone, but remains capped below the prior swing high at 7,537 (July 6 close), with oil near $89 and the US-Iran conflict keeping risk appetite restrained.

Main risk

US-Iran military conflict driving oil price spike

Brent crude surged to $94.07 on Wednesday — its highest in over a month — as the US completed 11 straight days of strikes on Iran; further escalation could push oil to $100+ and reignite inflation fears, derailing rate-cut expectations.