S&P 500
BearishArchived analysis from Sep 25, 2026, 3:29 AM
Key insight
5.135% 10-year yield is the anchor — every rally since Sept 22 has failed below 7,770; index needs yield to break back under 5.0% to sustain any bid above 7,750.
7,706 capped three days running — 10-year yield at 5.135%, highest since 2007, crushing cyclicals; hot PMI data reignites Fed hike fears and keeps bulls pinned.
Main risk
10-Year Treasury Yield at 19-yr High
Yield at 5.135% (Jul-2007 high) — 30-yr hit 2004 peak; failed Treasury buyback stokes further bond selloff risk into month-end.
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