S&P 500

Key insight

7,700 round-number resistance capping near-term upside; hold above 7,550 (50-day MA) keeps bull structure intact, but a close below flips short-term bias bearish toward 7,400 gap support.

7,696 holds above the 50-day MA near 7,550 but momentum stalls — broad-market breadth is thin and defensives are outperforming cyclicals on modest -0.14% session.

Main risk

Fed policy pivot delay

Sticky core PCE above 2.5% keeps the Fed on hold; 10-yr Treasury yield above 4.6% compresses equity multiples at stretched 22x forward P/E.