S&P 500

Key insight

7,800 round-number resistance is the line in the sand — a daily close above it opens 8,000. Nasdaq flat while Dow +0.7% confirms healthy sector rotation; oil -3.2% is a net macro tailwind for consumer and transport stocks.

7,773 holds near all-time highs; Dow outperforms (+0.7%) signalling rotation into cyclicals — breadth is broadening beyond mega-cap tech, supporting the rally's durability.

Main risk

Treasury yield spike / Fed policy shift

Yield surge above 5.0% on 10-yr would reprice equities sharply; USD/JPY at 157.3 signals carry-trade stress that could amplify a rates-driven selloff.