S&P 500

Key insight

7,695 holds above the 50-day MA near 7,580; next resistance at 7,750 (prior swing high). Break there opens 7,900. Oil -3.6% cuts input costs, supporting margins across S&P sectors.

7,695 clears the 7,600 round-number pivot — broad risk-on confirmed by Nasdaq +1.1%, DAX +1.2%, and BTC surging 5.1%; momentum favours continuation toward 7,800.

Main risk

USD/JPY at 157.3 — BoJ intervention risk

157+ triggered verbal warnings in prior cycles; a BoJ surprise rate action could spark a yen carry unwind, hitting risk assets hard.