S&P 500

Key insight

7,636 is consolidating just below the 7,700 round-number ceiling. No distribution selling visible; dip-buyers active. A daily close above 7,700 opens 7,850 measured by the Q2 2026 channel projection.

7,636 holds near record highs; flat 24h move after a sustained advance confirms distribution is absent. Gold +1.9% and silver +3.7% signal macro stress, but equities are not breaking.

Main risk

Oil spike to $97 — inflation re-ignition

Brent at $97.2 threatens to reverse Fed's dovish pivot; a sustained move above $100 would pressure rate-cut expectations and compress equity multiples.