S&P 500

Key insight

7,596 extends above the 7,400 breakout shelf — bulls need a close above 7,620 round resistance to open 7,800; failure to hold 7,520 (50-day MA) re-opens 7,400.

7,596 holds above the 200-day MA near 7,200 and the June breakout base at 7,400; broad-market advance (+0.6%) with Gold at $4,287 confirming risk-on flow.

Main risk

Oil at $98 — inflation resurgence risk

98.3 crude keeps CPI pressures alive; a sustained break above $100 could delay Fed easing and stall equity multiples at current highs.