S&P 500

Key insight

FOMC decision today (Sept 16): market-implied hike probability near 50% — break above 7,666 Aug high on a hold, or flush to 7,500 key support on a hike. Pick your side before 2 pm ET.

7,608 holds above the Sept 15 close of 7,585 — but FOMC decision today at 3.5%-3.75% range with a live hike risk keeps bulls on a tight leash near the Aug swing high at 7,666.

Main risk

Fed rate hike — Sept 16 FOMC

Treasury yields at multiyear highs; a hike from 3.75% would be first since 2024 and directly challenges the 7,500 support floor identified by analysts.