S&P 500

Key insight

Brent crude has surged to ~$98 — on course for a 33%+ monthly gain — reigniting inflation fears and sharply reducing the probability of any Fed rate cut in H2 2026, threatening to reprice equity risk premiums at already-stretched valuations near 22.5x forward earnings.

The S&P 500 at 7,433 is pulling back from the 7,537 early-July high as surging Brent crude above $98, rising Treasury yields, and a hawkish FOMC setup ahead of next week's meeting compound pressure from mixed megacap earnings (Tesla miss vs. Alphabet beat).

Main risk

FOMC Rate Hike Risk — July 29-30 Meeting

Policymakers had pencilled in one 2026 rate cut in March, but with CPI at 3.5%, oil near $98, and the job market firm, the Fed under Chair Warsh is now edging closer to a rate hike, which would directly compress equity multiples at the current 22.5x NTM P/E.