S&P 500

Key insight

7,603 consolidates near ATH zone; break above 7,650 opens 7,800. Gold +1% and silver +1.6% flag real-yield anxiety, but index breadth holds — Nasdaq +0.3% confirms tech bid still alive.

7,603 holds above the 7,550 50-day MA — trend intact, gold at $4,336 and oil at $100 signal stagflation hedge rotation but equities absorb it without breaking structure.

Main risk

Oil at $100 / stagflation re-acceleration

Oil holding $100 keeps CPI elevated, squeezing Fed easing room and compressing equity multiples if 10Y yield breaks above 5%.