S&P 500

Key insight

7,600 round-number support holding; break below exposes 7,400 ATH breakout zone. Sustained close above 7,650 opens path to 7,800 measured extension.

7,615 holds above the 200-day MA near 7,200 and prior ATH breakout zone at 7,400; trend intact but momentum fading — flat -0.05% session signals consolidation, not reversal.

Main risk

Oil at $98.5 — inflation re-acceleration

98.5 crude threatens CPI rebound, forcing Fed to delay cuts; 10-yr yield spike above 4.8% would pressure equity multiples at ATH valuations.