S&P 500

Key insight

7,620 acting as near-term ceiling — break below 7,580 (50-day MA) opens path to 7,500 analyst target ahead of Wednesday's FOMC rate decision.

7,620 resistance cap holding; FOMC rate decision Sept 16 at 3.5–3.75% target and oil at $99 squeezing real income keep sellers in control.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Decision – Sept 16

85% market probability of 25-bp hike; hawkish Fed Chair Warsh bias confirmed at Jackson Hole — a hike + hawkish dot plot could flush 7,500 support.