S&P 500

Key insight

Fed decision Sept 15-16 is the binary gate: a hike delivers fresh selling pressure toward 7,500; a hold sparks a relief rally. Oil near $98-102 keeps the inflation-repricing trade alive and caps any rebound.

7,620 holds by a thread — 10-yr yield at 4.987% (highest since Oct 2023) and ~90% Fed hike odds for Sept 15-16 meeting crush equity multiples across the board.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Hike — Sept 15-16

90% hike probability baked in; any hawkish surprise or dissent-free vote could spike 10-yr above 5.0% and break 7,500 support.