S&P 500

Key insight

7,598 holds above the 50-day MA near 7,480 but Nasdaq's -1.3% divergence signals tech fatigue. Oil at $97.8 threatens the disinflation narrative — a daily close below 7,520 opens a retest of 7,350.

Fading -0.52% at 7,598 as Nasdaq drops -1.3% — tech leadership cracks while oil surges +4.0% to $97.8, compressing margins and lifting inflation expectations above the Fed's comfort zone.

Main risk

Oil spike reigniting inflation fears

Oil +4.0% to $97.8 — sustained above $95 forces Fed to hold rates higher, pressuring P/E multiples at 7,598.