S&P 500

Key insight

7,648 consolidates below the round 7,700 resistance — a daily close above flips momentum toward 8,000. Gold at 4,414 and oil at 93.8 signal risk-on with inflation tail risk.

7,648 holds above the 200-day MA near 7,200 and the 2025 breakout level at 7,400 — trend is intact, Dow leading with +0.3% confirming broad participation.

Main risk

Oil at $93.8 reigniting inflation

Oil at 93.8 keeps PCE elevated; Fed holds rates higher, compressing P/E multiples at 7,648.