S&P 500
BearishArchived analysis from Sep 9, 2026, 8:46 PM
Key insight
4.857% 10-yr yield is the fulcrum: holds here and equities face sustained multiple compression; CPI Sept 10 is the next binary catalyst for direction.
10-year yield at 4.857% — highest since Nov 2023 —압박 three straight down sessions; Fed Sept 15-16 hike risk alive with CPI still due.
Main risk
Fed rate hike at Sept 15-16 FOMC
Strong Aug payrolls (+162k vs 53k est.) revived hike bets; hike would push 10-yr above 5% and reprice equities lower.
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