S&P 500

Key insight

7,679 holds as bull base — break above 7,750 (prior swing high) opens a run toward 7,850; European weakness and gold at $4,378 signal defensive flows that haven't yet derailed US tech leadership.

Holds 7,679 — Nasdaq leads (+0.2%) while Europe sells off, confirming US outperformance; oil at $92.6 adds inflation caution but equity momentum remains intact above the 50-day MA.

Main risk

Oil spike reigniting inflation fears

Oil +1.5% to $92.6 — sustained move above $95 forces Fed to delay cuts, compressing equity multiples from current elevated levels.