S&P 500

Key insight

7,707 is a no-man's-land: Aug jobs (+162k vs 55k est) locks Fed on inflation-data watch; CPI on Sep 10 will decide whether Sep hike materialises and breaks the 7,631 Sep 1 low.

7,707 holds above Sep 2 close of 7,667 but Fed hike risk — >50% swap-implied odds for Sep 15-16 — caps upside until CPI clears the air.

Main risk

Fed Sep 15-16 rate hike decision

10yr yield hit 4.814% — multi-year high; a Sep hike would likely retest 7,500 analyst downside target flagged by Hatfield.