S&P 500

Key insight

7,731 sits in no-man's land between 50-day MA support at 7,650 and the August all-time high resistance at 7,800. Break either level with volume decides the next 3–5% move. Friday's session light — wait for a clean level test before adding risk.

7,731 holds above the 50-day MA (~7,650) but momentum fades — Nasdaq's +0.1% divergence and Dow's -0.3% signal rotation, not conviction. Gold -1.9% and BTC -2.6% point to mild risk-off into Friday close.

Main risk

10-Year Treasury Yield Spike

Yield re-acceleration above 4.80% compresses equity multiples — S&P trades ~22x forward earnings, leaving little buffer if rates surge.