S&P 500

Key insight

Waller's pause signal drove the week's sharpest rally — watch Aug NFP (due today) to confirm or kill the dovish pivot narrative at 7,800 resistance.

7,750 holds as Fed's Waller backs a pause, cutting Sep hike odds from 70% to ~50%; but 10-yr yield at 4.818% and U.S.-Iran escalation cap upside.

Main risk

U.S.-Iran Military Escalation

Iran missiles hit U.S. Jordan bases; Trump vowed retaliation — oil at $90.2 and 10-yr yield near 4.82% tighten financial conditions fast.