S&P 500

Key insight

7,672 trades 6pts from flat — consolidation after a multi-month rally; next directional signal comes from a clean break above 7,750 resistance or a slip through 7,580 June swing high.

7,672 holds above the 200-day MA near 6,800 and the June 2026 breakout at 7,200 — trend intact, gold at $4,427 and USD/JPY weakness confirm risk-on rotation into equities.

Main risk

Fed terminal rate above 4.5%

Sticky inflation keeps 10-year Treasury yields elevated; a re-acceleration above 5.0% would pressure equity multiples at current 22x forward P/E.