S&P 500

Key insight

7,630 is a pivot: a daily close below the 20-day MA (~7,580) opens a pullback to 7,450 Aug swing low; a close above 7,700 round number confirms bulls control the tape into September.

7,630 holds but momentum stalls — index is flat on the session as Nasdaq underperforms (-0.2%) and European bourses retreat up to -0.5%, signalling fading risk appetite near all-time highs.

Main risk

USD/JPY at 160 — BoJ intervention risk

160.3 is historic BoJ action territory; a sudden JPY strengthening unwind of carry trades could hit risk assets sharply and drag S&P 500 toward 7,450.