S&P 500

Key insight

7,685 consolidates just below the 7,700 round-number resistance; a clean daily close above flips the next target to 8,000. Dow's +0.1% vs Nasdaq's -0.1% signals mild defensive rotation but no trend break.

7,685 holds above the 200-day MA near 7,200 and July's breakout zone at 7,500 — trend remains intact heading into Sep 2026 with no major distribution signal.

Main risk

USD/JPY at 159.8 — BoJ intervention risk

BoJ intervention at 160 could trigger sharp yen surge, hitting US equity futures via carry-trade unwind — watch 160 handle closely.