S&P 500

Key insight

7,690 consolidates at all-time highs; a weekly close above 7,700 opens the path to 8,000. Gold at $4,450 and oil at $85 confirm risk appetite without overheating inflation fears.

7,690 holds above the 200-day MA near 6,800 and prior ATH at 6,147 — trend is intact with the index trading at record territory and momentum still positive.

Main risk

Fed policy pivot reversal

Any upside inflation surprise forces the Fed to delay cuts, pressuring multiples. 10-yr yield spike above 5% remains the circuit-breaker for this rally.