S&P 500
BearishArchived analysis from Aug 31, 2026, 1:18 PM
Key insight
7,677 prior support tested again — holds so far, but Warsh's warning that inflation "has not meaningfully improved" caps upside toward 7,799 ATH without a dovish catalyst.
7,799 ATH rejected — index now 112 pts below record as Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole remarks fuel rate-hike bets; Strait of Hormuz strike sends oil +2.4% compounding inflation risk.
Main risk
Fed rate hike: Sept FOMC
Warsh hawkish at Jackson Hole; oil surge to $84.9 lifts energy CPI — Sept hike probability rising fast.
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