S&P 500

Key insight

7,711 closing print vs 7,708 IG feed — gap is negligible. Warsh's "discipline, not a decision" stance leaves rate path open; 10-yr at 4.70% is the real ceiling on multiple expansion near all-time highs.

Holds 7,708 after mildly hawkish Warsh Jackson Hole speech; weekly gain of +0.5% intact, but 10-yr yield at 4.70% caps upside. Nvidia beat offset by semiconductor-sector rotation.

Main risk

Fed Chair Warsh Hawkish Pivot Risk

Warsh flagged sticky underlying inflation at Jackson Hole; any September data hotprint could force market to re-price rate-cut timeline, pressuring 7,600 support.