S&P 500

Key insight

Today is the single most important earnings day of Q2 season — Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, and ServiceNow all report after the bell — and their results will either re-ignite AI capex optimism or confirm fears that the elevated bar has become too high to clear.

The S&P 500 is caught between a resilient earnings season (88% beat rate) and a hawkish Fed re-pricing — with CME FedWatch now pricing a 69% chance of a September rate hike — leaving the index consolidating below its prior 7,500–7,575 range after pulling back from July highs near 7,600.

Main risk

Fed rate hike re-pricing — September FOMC

CME FedWatch now shows a ~69% probability of at least a 25bp rate hike by September 2026, a dramatic reversal from earlier expectations of rate cuts, driven by oil-fueled inflation above 4% and a tight labor market.