S&P 500

Key insight

7,800 ATH (Aug 13) now key resistance; index down ~1.8% from peak on tech rotation and yield pressure. Nvidia Aug 26 earnings are the single binary catalyst that reopens or invalidates the ATH retest.

7,661 holds above Aug 25 session low of ~7,652 but sits 137 pts below Aug 13 ATH of 7,798 — chip selloff and rising yields cap upside ahead of Nvidia earnings Aug 26.

Main risk

10-yr Treasury yield resurgence

Yields rebounded above pre-buyback levels after Treasury's $4bn+ debt repurchase failed to anchor the long end — BofA's Hartnett flags debt spiral risk.