S&P 500

Key insight

7,693 is deep in uncharted territory — no technical resistance overhead; momentum rules until macro headwinds (Fed policy, earnings revisions) force a structural reassessment near 7,800.

7,693 holds above the 200-day MA near 5,800 and 2025 ATH breakout zone; index has extended >30% from its 2025 lows with breadth still intact across large-cap tech and cyclicals.

Main risk

Fed rate path / Treasury yield spike

10-yr yield re-acceleration above 5.0% would pressure equity multiples; S&P trades at ~22x forward earnings, leaving little cushion for a yield shock.