S&P 500

Key insight

7,726 sits just above the 7,700 round-number pivot — a close below flips short-term momentum bearish; above 7,800 opens the next leg. Tech weakness vs. Dow flat signals sector rotation, not broad risk-off.

Holds above 7,700 round number after record-extending rally; Nasdaq's -0.7% tech drag is the main friction, but Dow flat signals rotation into cyclicals rather than broad distribution.

Main risk

Fed policy pivot reversal risk

Sticky services inflation or a hawkish FOMC minutes read could push 10yr yields back above 4.5%, pressuring the index below 7,600.