S&P 500

Neutral

Archived analysis from Aug 12, 2026, 8:18 PM

Key insight

7,757 Aug record close is the line — hold above opens 7,800+; slip below invites retest of 7,700 breakout zone

7,749 consolidates just below Aug record close 7,757 — CPI relief offset by 52% Sep hike odds

Main risk

Fed Sep rate hike — CME FedWatch 52%

52% Sep hike probability; Warsh era raises bar for dovish pivot vs. sticky inflation

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