S&P 500

Bullish

Archived analysis from Aug 12, 2026, 1:45 PM

Key insight

July CPI prints today at 8:30 ET — hot read risks reigniting hike bets above 52%; cool read targets 7,900

7,763 holds record territory — weak July payrolls (-23K) cut Sep hike odds to 52% from 67%

Main risk

July CPI beat / Fed hike re-pricing

52% Sep hike odds snap back to 67%+ on hot CPI, breaks 7,700 ATH base

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