S&P 500

Neutral

Archived analysis from Aug 11, 2026, 1:18 PM

Key insight

7,757 prior ATH acts as pivot — hold above = bull intact; CPI print this week is the binary catalyst.

Record highs stall at 7,764 — Iran deal doubts and Fed hike risk cap near-term upside.

Main risk

Fed rate hike risk — Sep FOMC

52% market-implied hike probability at Sep meeting; stubborn CPI could push that back toward 67%.

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