S&P 500

Key insight

The index just completed a historic $3.7 trillion four-day rally to all-time highs, but early exhaustion signals and tomorrow's NFP print (Aug. 7) are the critical near-term gatekeepers — a strong jobs number could rekindle Fed-hike fears and cap further upside.

The S&P 500 has broken above the prior all-time high set in early June (circa 7,620) and is consolidating just above the freshly minted 7,700 round-number breakout level, supported by a 70%+ breadth reading above the 200-day MA.

Main risk

Fed rate-hike repricing on strong NFP (Aug. 7)

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh begins his tenure with rates held at 3.5%–3.75% and Philadelphia Fed's Paulson confirming a 'mildly restrictive' stance; a hot jobs print could force markets to price in hikes, threatening the 7,700 breakout level.