S&P 500

Key insight

The index just achieved back-to-back all-time record closes above 7,700, powered by a 27% Q2 earnings growth beat and geopolitical de-escalation — but August–October is historically the weakest seasonal window, and a fresh Houthi tanker strike signals Hormuz tensions are not fully resolved.

The S&P 500 has broken above the historic 7,700 round-number barrier for the first time ever, closing at record highs two consecutive sessions, with broad earnings beats and easing Strait of Hormuz tensions driving momentum.

Main risk

Strait of Hormuz Geopolitical Re-escalation

Houthi militants struck a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea on Wednesday even as Iran–Oman Hormuz route talks progress, meaning a breakdown in negotiations could reverse the oil-slide tailwind and shock risk assets back below 7,600 support.