S&P 500

Key insight

The S&P 500 is down ~2.2% from Monday's record-adjacent close at 7,600, signalling that the Iran de-escalation euphoria faded fast and the index remains hostage to the AI capex narrative and Friday's US jobs report — a confirmed break above 7,600 would be a new all-time high; a close below 7,350 reopens July's volatile range.

The S&P 500 at 7,433 has pulled back sharply from Monday's closing high of ~7,600, with the index caught between a bullish Iran de-escalation tailwind and a bearish reversal driven by resurging AI trade doubts and the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.73%.

Main risk

10-Year Treasury Yield Near 4.73% Multi-Month High

Elevated yields at ~4.73% compress equity multiples, particularly for high-P/E tech names that dominate the S&P 500, and are being driven not just by Fed policy but by massive AI infrastructure financing demand per Mohamed El-Erian.