S&P 500

Key insight

Trump's cancellation of planned Iran strikes sent oil down 5%+ and unlocked a broad risk-on surge, but the S&P 500's ability to break its early-June all-time high — estimated near 7,620 — will hinge on the July Nonfarm Payrolls print this Friday and whether the Fed can resist hiking again in September.

The S&P 500 is trading above its 50-day MA near 7,300 and within striking distance of its all-time high set in early June, propelled by a geopolitical de-escalation on Iran and explosive Big Tech earnings beats.

Main risk

Fed September Rate Hike Risk (64.5% probability priced by CME FedWatch)

With markets now pricing a 64.5% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and the 10-year Treasury near 4.73%, a hawkish surprise in Friday's July Nonfarm Payrolls could compress equity multiples sharply and stall the current rally.