S&P 500

Key insight

The Iran de-escalation has removed the single biggest tail risk overhanging markets this weekend, sending oil crashing ~6.4% and releasing a powerful risk-on impulse — but the Fed's rate-hike risk (64.5% September probability per CME FedWatch) at 4.69% 10-year yields remains the structural ceiling on the rally.

S&P 500 futures are pointing higher (+0.6%) as Trump's halt of the planned Iran strike collapses the geopolitical risk premium, while Amazon's 15%+ earnings surge anchors the AI-driven bull case above the 7,400 psychological support level.

Main risk

Federal Reserve September Rate Hike (CME FedWatch 64.5% probability)

With the 10-year Treasury at 4.69% and the 2-year at 4.25%, a confirmed Fed hike in September would invert the risk-reward for equities and pressure the S&P 500 back toward the 7,100–7,200 support zone.