Silver

Key insight

Silver has cratered ~52% from its January 2026 all-time high of $121.62 yet the gold-silver ratio at 69:1 and a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit of 46.3 million ounces signal extreme structural undervaluation — the July 28–29 FOMC decision is the next binary inflection point.

Silver is rebounding +1.65% today from multi-month lows near $55.50, but remains capped below the key $58.00 prior support-turned-resistance zone as the Fed rate-hike risk and Middle East escalation create powerful crosscurrents.

Main risk

Fed September Rate Hike Pricing (53% probability)

Markets are now pricing a 53% chance of a Fed rate hike in September following Cleveland Fed President Hammack's Friday warning on persistent inflation driven by oil's 30% surge from July lows — a hike would extend real-yield pressure and keep silver pinned below $60.