Silver

Key insight

Today's FOMC decision is the single most critical catalyst: a rate hike or explicitly hawkish hold could push silver below the $55.00 structural support, while a dovish surprise would unlock a retest of the $60.00 round-number resistance.

Silver is consolidating at $57.13 — caught between a USD near four-week highs ahead of a hawkish FOMC decision and structural safe-haven demand driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Hike Signal — July 29 Meeting

Markets are pricing over a one-third chance of a rate hike today and ~80% probability of a September hike, which would strengthen the USD and raise the opportunity cost of holding silver, threatening a breakdown below $55.00.