Silver

Key insight

The US–Iran ceasefire pause has simultaneously crushed oil (easing Fed tightening fears) and lifted safe-haven metals — silver is the leveraged beneficiary with the FOMC decision due this week acting as the next binary catalyst.

Silver is reclaiming the $58–$59 range after bouncing off the key $56.50 multi-week support, supported by a pause in US–Iran airstrikes and gold's breakout above $4,080, which historically pulls silver higher via the gold/silver ratio re-compression.

Main risk

FOMC July 29 Rate Decision — Hawkish Surprise

If the Fed signals a rate hike or explicitly pushes back against cuts, real yields would spike and silver could retrace sharply below the $56.50 swing low toward the $53.00 zone.