Silver

Key insight

Silver has recovered above the psychologically critical $56.00 level after last week's rate-hike-fear capitulation, and with a FOMC hold now ~49% priced for July and structural supply deficits widening to 46.3 Moz, the risk/reward favours upside — but the US-Iran conflict and a surprise September hike remain the key tail risks.

Silver is bouncing +1.67% today from its multi-month low near $55.50 (November 2025 support), with the gold-silver ratio at a historically stretched 69:1 and the FOMC July 28-29 hold now the base case following the softer June CPI print.

Main risk

FOMC July 28-29 surprise rate hike / hawkish guidance

Traders price ~51% odds of a September hike; any hawkish re-pricing at the July meeting or further Middle East oil shock pushing CPI back above 4% could send silver back below the $55.50 November 2025 low.