Silver

Key insight

Recovered from 64.24 intraday low but up only 0.82% — buyers thin. ADP print today + NFP Sep 5 could seal a Sep FOMC hike; break below 63.50 (Aug swing low) opens 61.00.

64.61 holds after early slide to 64.24, but hawkish Warsh Jackson Hole speech + Middle East oil shock cement Fed rate-hike expectations — classic headwind for silver.

Main risk

Fed Sep FOMC Rate Hike

Warsh flagged 'work to do' at Jackson Hole; NFP Sep 5 is the swing vote — a hot print confirms hike, pressuring silver toward 61.00.