Silver

Key insight

Silver has shed over 7% in one week and sits ~54% below its January 2026 all-time high of $121.62, but a soft June CPI print and widening supply deficit of 46.3 Moz argue the structural bull case is intact pending the July 28–29 FOMC decision.

Silver sits at $55.91 — near an eight-month low and just below the key $56.00 psychological level — caught between a bullish structural supply deficit and a bearish "higher-for-longer" rate environment driven by Middle East-fuelled oil inflation.

Main risk

US–Iran military escalation reigniting oil-driven rate-hike expectations

US strikes on Iranian targets have pushed Brent crude to one-month highs, reinforcing Fed Chair Warsh's tighter-for-longer stance and keeping ~51% probability of a September rate hike priced in, a direct headwind for silver.