Silver

Key insight

Silver has reclaimed $58 on a dual catalyst — geopolitical de-escalation reducing oil-driven inflation fears and a dovish CPI surprise — while structural fundamentals (6th consecutive supply deficit, 58% industrial demand share) and a historically compressed gold-silver ratio of 69:1 argue for a sustained recovery toward analyst consensus of $79–81.

Silver surged +4.24% to $58.82 today, bouncing off 8-month lows and breaking back above the $58 key psychological level as US-Iran ceasefire talks revive and a soft June CPI print (3.5% YoY) reduces pressure for additional Fed rate hikes ahead of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.

Main risk

FOMC Rate Hike — July 28–29 Meeting

If the Fed hikes rates at the July 28–29 FOMC meeting in response to oil-driven inflation from the Middle East conflict, real yields would spike and pressure silver back toward the 54.25 wedge support, potentially triggering a re-test of 46.82.