Silver

Key insight

Silver sits 52% below its January 2026 all-time high of $121.62 while a sixth consecutive structural supply deficit of 46.3 million ounces and an overstretched gold-silver ratio of 69:1 provide a powerful mean-reversion case — the FOMC meeting on July 28–29 is the critical binary catalyst.

Silver is bouncing from the lower boundary of a falling wedge pattern at ~$54.25, with softer-than-expected June CPI (3.5% YoY) reducing Fed rate-hike urgency and gold's +1.1% session gain on safe-haven Middle East flows dragging silver higher.

Main risk

Fed rate hike at July 28–29 FOMC meeting

Markets are pricing a ~53% probability of a September Fed rate hike following Cleveland Fed President Hammack's persistent-inflation warning; an explicit July hike signal would crush real-yield relief and re-test the 54.25 wedge support.