Silver

Key insight

Silver has rebounded +1.7% today off its falling-wedge lower boundary, but the July 28–29 FOMC decision is the decisive binary event — a hold unlocks a recovery to 61.50+, while a surprise hike risks breaking the 54.25 support and opening a path to 46.82.

Silver is caught between structural bullish supply deficits and a near-term bearish headwind from a 53% market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike, leaving price pinned between key support at 54.25 and resistance at 61.50.

Main risk

FOMC July 28–29 Rate Decision — Surprise Hike

Markets currently price 53% odds of a September hike; a hawkish FOMC statement on July 29 signalling an imminent hike would spike real yields, crush non-yielding silver through the 54.25 support and target the November 2025 low at 46.82.