Silver

Key insight

Silver is caught between a bullish structural backdrop — supply deficits, surging solar/EV industrial demand, and safe-haven flows — and a genuine hawkish headwind: markets price a 65% chance of a Fed hike in September, which could strengthen the USD and cap the rally below $60.

Silver has reclaimed the $58 handle after bouncing from mid-$57 support as the Fed held rates steady and the USD softened, keeping the short-term uptrend intact toward the $60 psychological level.

Main risk

Fed September Rate Hike (65% market-implied probability)

If the FOMC raises rates at the September meeting — backed by three hawkish dissenters and ongoing US-Iran conflict inflation pressures — real yields would rise and the USD could recover sharply, threatening silver's rebound from $57.