Silver

Key insight

Silver is caught in a tug-of-war: escalating US-Iran conflict provides safe-haven bids, but a hawkish Fed hold at 3.50%–3.75% and a 60% chance of a September hike are capping upside and driving today's -1.35% pullback from the $58+ range.

Silver has broken below the key $58.00 short-term support and is now printing at $57.42, with the 60% market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike adding near-term headwinds to non-yielding metals.

Main risk

September Fed Rate Hike Re-pricing

Markets are pricing ~60% probability of a Fed hike in September 2026, which would strengthen the USD and compress real asset valuations, threatening a break below the critical $55.00 round-number support.